Estimating conflict losses and reporting biases

Determining the number of casualties and fatalities suffered in militarized conflicts is important for conflict measurement, forecasting, and accountability. However, given the nature of conflict, reliable statistics on casualties are rare. Countries or political actors involved in conflicts have incentives to hide or manipulate these numbers, while third parties might not have access to reliable information. For example, in the ongoing militarized conflict between Russia and Ukraine, estimates of the magnitude of losses vary wildly, sometimes across orders of magnitude. In this paper, we offer an approach for measuring casualties and fatalities given multiple reporting sources and, at the same time, accounting for the biases of those sources. We construct a dataset of 4,609 reports of military and civilian losses by both sides. We then develop a statistical model to better estimate losses for both sides given these reports. Our model accounts for different kinds of reporting biases, structural correlations between loss types, and integrates loss reports at different temporal scales. Our daily and cumulative estimates provide evidence that Russia has lost more personnel than has Ukraine and also likely suffers from a higher fatality to casualty ratio. We find that both sides likely overestimate the personnel losses suffered by their opponent and that Russian sources underestimate their own losses of personnel

Factors affecting follower responses to movement calls in cooperatively breeding dwarf mongooses

In social species, individuals maximize the benefits of group living by remaining cohesive and coordinating their actions. Communication is key to collective action, including ensuring that group members move together; individuals often produce signals when attempting to lead a group to a new area. However, the function of these signals, and how responses to them are affected by intrinsic characteristics of the caller and extrinsic factors, has rarely been experimentally tested. We conducted a series of field-based playback experiments with habituated wild dwarf mongooses, Helogale parvula, a cooperatively breeding and territorial species, to investigate follower responses to movement calls. In our first experiment, we found that focal individuals were more likely to respond to playback of ‘movement calls’ than control ‘close calls’, indicating movement calls function as recruitment signals. In a second experiment, we found that focal individuals responded similarly to the movement calls of dominant and subordinate groupmates, suggesting that dominance status (an intrinsic factor) does not influence receiver responses. In a final experiment, we found that individuals responded to the simulated presence of a rival group, but that this outgroup conflict (an extrinsic factor) did not affect responses to movement calls compared to a control situation. This may be because attention is instead focused on the potential presence of an imminent threat. By using playbacks to isolate the acoustic signal from physical movement cues, our results provide experimental evidence of how movement calls help leaders to attract followers and thus adds to our understanding of recruitment signals more generally

The use of singlebeam echo-sounder depth data to produce demersal fish distribution models that are comparable to models produced using multibeam echo-sounder depth

Seafloor characteristics can help in the prediction of fish distribution, which is required for fisheries and conservation management. Despite this, only 5%–10% of the world\u27s seafloor has been mapped at high resolution, as it is a time-consuming and expensive process. Multibeam echo-sounders (MBES) can produce high-resolution bathymetry and a broad swath coverage of the seafloor, but require greater financial and technical resources for operation and data analysis than singlebeam echo-sounders (SBES). In contrast, SBES provide comparatively limited spatial coverage, as only a single measurement is made from directly under the vessel. Thus, producing a continuous map requires interpolation to fill gaps between transects. This study assesses the performance of demersal fish species distribution models by comparing those derived from interpolated SBES data with full-coverage MBES distribution models. A Random Forest classifier was used to model the distribution of Abalistes stellatus, Gymnocranius grandoculis, Lagocephalus sceleratus, Loxodon macrorhinus, Pristipomoides multidens, and Pristipomoides typus, with depth and depth derivatives (slope, aspect, standard deviation of depth, terrain ruggedness index, mean curvature, and topographic position index) as explanatory variables. The results indicated that distribution models for A. stellatus, G. grandoculis, L. sceleratus, and L. macrorhinus performed poorly for MBES and SBES data with area under the receiver operator curves (AUC) below 0.7. Consequently, the distribution of these species could not be predicted by seafloor characteristics produced from either echo-sounder type. Distribution models for P. multidens and P. typus performed well for MBES and the SBES data with an AUC above 0.8. Depth was the most important variable explaining the distribution of P. multidens and P. typus in both MBES and SBES models. While further research is needed, this study shows that in resource-limited scenarios, SBES can produce comparable results to MBES for use in demersal fish management and conservation

SCUBA noise alters community structure and cooperation at Pederson’s cleaner shrimp cleaning stations

Recreational SCUBA diving is widespread and increasing on coral reefs worldwide. Standard open-circuit SCUBA equipment is inherently noisy and, by seeking out areas of high biodiversity, divers inadvertently expose reef communities to an intrusive source of anthropogenic noise. Currently, little is known about SCUBA noise as an acoustic stressor, and there is a general lack of empirical evidence on community-level impacts of anthropogenic noise on coral reefs. Here, we conducted a playback experiment on Caribbean reefs to investigate impacts of SCUBA noise on fish communities and interspecific cooperation at ecologically important cleaning stations of the Pederson’s cleaner shrimp Ancylomenes pedersoni. When exposed to SCUBA-noise playback, the total occurrence of fishes at the cleaning stations decreased by 7%, and the community and cleaning clientele compositions were significantly altered, with 27% and 25% of monitored species being affected, respectively. Compared with ambient-sound playback, SCUBA-noise playback resulted in clients having to wait 29% longer for cleaning initiation and receiving 43% less cleaning; however, cheating, signalling, posing and time spent cleaning were not affected by SCUBA-noise playback. Our study is the first to demonstrate experimentally that SCUBA noise can have at least some negative impacts on reef organisms, confirming it as an ecologically relevant pollutant. Moreover, by establishing acoustic disturbance as a likely mechanism for known impacts of diver presence on reef animals, we also identify a potential avenue for mitigation in these valuable ecosystems.</p

Normal pressure hydrocephalus, or Hakim syndrome: review and update

This review makes the case that idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) is an outdated term because new information indicates that the syndrome is less idiopathic and that the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pressure of normal individuals is affected by several factors such as body mass index, age, and sex. Our review updates the epidemiology of iNPH and provides a clinical approach to the management of these patients. All the clinical features of iNPH are common in older individuals, and each has many causes, so the diagnosis is difficult. The first step in reaching an accurate diagnosis is to address the possible contributory factors to the gait abnormality and determine what if any role iNPH may be playing. The two best diagnostic tests are neuroimaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) diversion (large volume lumbar puncture or external lumbar drainage) with pre/post gait evaluation. This review provides an update on the growing evidence that vascular disease, impaired CSF absorption, congenital, and genetic factors all contribute to the pathogenesis of iNPH. We suggest replacing the term iNPH with the term Hakim syndrome (HS) in acknowledgement of the first person to describe this syndrome. Lastly, we discuss the improvements in shunt technology and surgical techniques that have decreased the risks and long-term complications of shunt surgery